another misAdventure

"We are all of us living in the shadow of Manhattan."

Friday, November 03, 2006

Pop Quiz - Marketing

Obviously, the purpose of these little contests is to get you to buy more pop. Mission accomplished, because I will sometimes choose to buy the pop with the contest top rather than one without, though my pop of choice is almost 100% Pepsi product anyway. If I'm getting a Diet Mountain Dew, I'll try to buy one with the special cap rather than the mundane "no contest" variety -- when I can choose my bottle like in the cafeteria or in the vending machines we have at work (glass front to display the product).

Some other observations on the caps in a moment.

Each bottle cap has one of three types of things on it: a team name, a "Buy one, get one free" (1:6 chance), or a "15% of $50 purchase at" (1:12) chance. So the team names must be on 75% of the caps (9 of 12). I didn't figure that into the expected value, though I could now. It should be 1/3rd more than the previously calculated expected value, so 25.7 caps. Not all of which you'd pay for.

I decided to assume that the "Buy one, get one free" had no effect on the probability. I buy the pop anyway, so that cap is effectively "I get this pop free". Or, I can figure it has the value of a bit less than a dollar. I can get the bottles in the vending machine for $1, but I obviously can't redeem the buy-one-get-one that way. So to redeem it I have to get the pop in the cafeteria, where the pop costs about $1.16 ($1.09 plus tax). So, that makes the value more like 84 cents.

The "15% off NFL" has a value of exactly ... nothing. And not just because I'm not planning on buying anything there. In the official rules on the back of the bottle label if gives the method of redemption for each prize. For the 15% off it tells us, "To redeem, enter code NFL_PEPSI at checkout". So you don't even need the cap, you just need to read the rules to get a discount on overpriced stuff.

OK, I guess that's enough babbling on about the delivery system for my drug of choice.

I'm tired/sleepy tonight, and it's still early. So maybe I'll get to bed early, not rush to wake up in the morning, and have the energy to get a bunch done tomorrow. Check in tomorrow to see if that actually happened!


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